Tropical weather discussion NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center Miami FL 705 PM EST sun Nov 22 2009

Tropical weather discussion for North America...Central America...Gulf of Mexico...Caribbean Sea...northern sections of South America...and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32n. The following information is based on satellite imagery...meteorological analysis...weather observations...and radar.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

The ITCZ axis is centered along 7n10w 7n20w 4n35w 6n48w 5n53w 6n60w. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 5n-7n between 24w-29w. Isolated moderate convection is from 4n-10n between 45w-50w.

...Discussion...

Gulf of Mexico... as of 2100 UTC...a 1010 mb low is centered over the Florida Panhandle near 31n97w. An occluded front extents E to a triple point at 30n85w. A warm front extends E from the low to S Georgia along 31n81w 32n80w. A stationary front also extends S from the low center to the Bay of Campeche along 26n86w 22n94w 18n96w. Widely scattered moderate convection is in the warm sector over the NE Gulf and N Florida from 26n-31n between 79w-85w. Elsewhere...a 1015 mb high is centered along the coast of Texas near 28n97w producing fair weather. In the upper levels...the eastern half of an upper level trough is over the Gulf producing SW upper level flow. Strong subsidence is over Texas and the NW Gulf. The remainder of the Gulf has significant upper level moisture. Expect the surface low to move NE to the coast of North Carolina in 24 hours...with a trailing cold front extending S to the central Gulf...and a warm front continuing to south Texas. Also expect convection along the fronts.

Caribbean Sea... moderate to fresh tradewinds dominates the Basin. A 1006 mb low is centered inland over N Colombia near 8n77w. Widely scattered moderate convection is over the SW Caribbean...Panama...and Costa Rica from 5n-12n between 77w-84w. A surface trough is over the north central Caribbean from 21n73w through the Windward Passage to 17n75w. Scattered moderate convection is over Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Patches of broken to overcast low clouds dots the NW Caribbean and Central America namely N of 15n and W of 85w to include the Yucatan Peninsula. In the upper levels...a broad ridge with ridge axis along 72w is over the entire Caribbean. Dry air and subsidence covers the area except over the SW Caribbean where with upper level moisture prevails. Expect...showers/thunderstorms to continue over the W Caribbean W of 78w over the next 24 hours.

Atlantic Ocean... a surface trough is over the central Atlantic from 30n58w to 26n60w. Widely scattered convection is E of the trough axis from 26n-28n between 56w-58w. Another surface trough is further E along 31n49w 27n48w 24n49w. Widely scattered moderate convection is W of the trough axis from 25n-30n between 48w-51w. A long frontal trough remains over the E Atlantic along 31n15w 30n23w 27n30w 30n40w. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough. Expect over the next 24 hours...more convection over the N Florida coast...and more convection over the central Atlantic N of 25n between 45w-55w. $$ Formosa

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axnt20 knhc 222352
twdat


Tropical weather discussion
NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 PM EST sun Nov 22 2009


Tropical weather discussion for North America...Central
America...Gulf of Mexico...Caribbean Sea...northern sections
of South America...and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast
from the Equator to 32n. The following information is based
on satellite imagery...meteorological analysis...weather
observations...and radar.


Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.


...ITCZ...


The ITCZ axis is centered along 7n10w 7n20w 4n35w 6n48w 5n53w
6n60w. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 5n-7n
between 24w-29w. Isolated moderate convection is from 4n-10n
between 45w-50w.


...Discussion...


Gulf of Mexico...
as of 2100 UTC...a 1010 mb low is centered over the Florida
Panhandle near 31n97w. An occluded front extents E to a triple
point at 30n85w. A warm front extends E from the low to S
Georgia along 31n81w 32n80w. A stationary front also extends S
from the low center to the Bay of Campeche along 26n86w 22n94w
18n96w. Widely scattered moderate convection is in the warm
sector over the NE Gulf and N Florida from 26n-31n between
79w-85w. Elsewhere...a 1015 mb high is centered along the coast
of Texas near 28n97w producing fair weather. In the upper
levels...the eastern half of an upper level trough is over the
Gulf producing SW upper level flow. Strong subsidence is over
Texas and the NW Gulf. The remainder of the Gulf has significant
upper level moisture. Expect the surface low to move NE to the
coast of North Carolina in 24 hours...with a trailing cold front
extending S to the central Gulf...and a warm front continuing to
south Texas. Also expect convection along the fronts.


Caribbean Sea...
moderate to fresh tradewinds dominates the Basin. A 1006 mb low
is centered inland over N Colombia near 8n77w. Widely scattered
moderate convection is over the SW Caribbean...Panama...and
Costa Rica from 5n-12n between 77w-84w. A surface trough is over
the north central Caribbean from 21n73w through the Windward
Passage to 17n75w. Scattered moderate convection is over Puerto
Rico and Hispaniola. Patches of broken to overcast low clouds
dots the NW Caribbean and Central America namely N of 15n and W
of 85w to include the Yucatan Peninsula. In the upper levels...a
broad ridge with ridge axis along 72w is over the entire
Caribbean. Dry air and subsidence covers the area except over
the SW Caribbean where with upper level moisture prevails.
Expect...showers/thunderstorms to continue over the W Caribbean
W of 78w over the next 24 hours.


Atlantic Ocean...
a surface trough is over the central Atlantic from 30n58w to
26n60w. Widely scattered convection is E of the trough axis from
26n-28n between 56w-58w. Another surface trough is further E
along 31n49w 27n48w 24n49w. Widely scattered moderate convection
is W of the trough axis from 25n-30n between 48w-51w. A long
frontal trough remains over the E Atlantic along 31n15w 30n23w
27n30w 30n40w. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough.
Expect over the next 24 hours...more convection over the N
Florida coast...and more convection over the central Atlantic N
of 25n between 45w-55w.


$$
Formosa





















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